Portfolio prescription
Week 6- Target
- Permanent-magnet candidates for 200 °C service, free of heavy rare earths (Dy, Tb)
- Budget
- 40 experiments in 4 batches
- Resource profile
- Light rare earths and boron, domestic and abundant
| Rank | Candidate | Proposed route | Success probabilityMean, with the p05–p95 range | Supply risk | Risk flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | (Nd,Ce)₂Fe₁₄B, 30% Ce | Arc melting → 1050 °C homogenisation → rapid solidification | 0.710.58–0.82 | Low | Anisotropy falls as the Ce share rises |
| 2 | (Nd,La,Ce)₂Fe₁₄B | Arc melting → strip casting → 650 °C anneal | 0.540.40–0.67 | Low | Possible secondary phase (CeFe₂) |
| 3 | CeFe₁₁Ti | Arc melting → 1000 °C anneal, 72 h under Ar | 0.470.31–0.62 | Very low | Phase-separation risk at high temperature |
| 4 | τ-MnAl(C) | Induction melting → 1100 °C quench → 500 °C phase transformation | 0.420.28–0.57 | Very low | High chance of a disordered phase |
| 5 | Fe₂B-based doped phase | Solid-state reaction, 900 °C, Ar | 0.290.17–0.43 | Very low | Low binding confidence; new route |
- 10experiments in batch 1
- 4.1expected successes
- 96%chance of at least one success
- 70%lower supply risk than the heavy-rare-earth reference
Synthesis records for 23 similar compounds show a high success rate for arc melting plus homogenisation. Stability probability at 200 °C is 0.93. Ce substitution cuts supply risk markedly, and magnetisation calibrated to institutional measurements sits 8% above target.
In the product, every line opens onto the literature records, calculations and, where they exist, institutional measurements it rests on.
